Blog On The Motorway Swan diving off the tongues of crippled giants

We really don’t do hope

Looking back to the glorious night in November 2008 (was it really that long ago?) when myself and a group of dedicated drunkards stayed up all night in my front room as the American people ushered in a moment of genuine change, and embraced hope over fear, it was something that was genuinely special to be a part of, even from a trans atlantic distance. Fastforward to today, and try as it might, British politics is utterly incapable of grasping the same strand of hope.

I have just returned from voting (and yes that picture is from my polling station, in case you care), in an empty church hall (and yes that picture is from my polling station, in case you care.) I live in a constituency where my vote will not matter one iota, because I happen to live in a very safe seat. I have always lived in safe seats, and yet like a fool I get the same tingle of excitement ever time election time rolls around. Mind you, as one friend pointed out to me on Facebook earlier, at least I now have the luxury of voting my intention, rather than tactically. He is not a Labour supporter, but is gripped with the same 'anyone but the Tories' fever that seems to have struck the country (and hopefully will prevail come the results) and as such is voting for the candidate best positioned to defeat the Conservative candidate. And this is why the election of change has become an election of fear, as the Tories trade on the fear of Labour, and the left leaning parties try to form an an alliance out of fear against the Tories.

Cameron has tried to make this election about change, about hope, as though he wants his Obama moment without genuinely understanding how that moment worked, but people have overwhelmingly seen through that, and any victory dance that he makes outside the black door with the number ten tomorrow or in the next week will be tempered by the knowledge that the result is no glowing endorsement of his policies or personality, no mandate for sweeping change. Brown, however, could never make this about change, because that inevitably leads to the question of why such changes were not made over the previous 13 years of his party's power. Labour have a record that in some areas is shining, in others dismal. The same can be said of any party who have been in power long enough, but the decisions that Blair and Brown have made over issues like Iraq and civil liberties have been utterly atrocious and indefensible, and leave even the most hardened Labour supporters to shake their heads.

If anyone in this election has represented change and hope, it is Nick Clegg. But even to this most ardent Liberal Democrat supporter, he failed to follow up on the promise of his performance in the first debate, seeming at times to be scared of his own party's positions. And the Lib Dem positions on some areas are not particularly populist, but where Obama made real hope possible was in not ducking the big topics, and by trying his best to explain his positions in an honest manner when they were out of synch with popular opinion. On immigration and Europe especially, Clegg has not done enough to make his case, and he has scared a lot people willing to take a punt on him, and in the last few weeks sounded like a broken record when accusing the other parties of the 'same old politics' time and time again. He should have hit much harder and longer on MP's expenses, and made electoral reform the centrepiece of his campaign.

To a lot of my peers though, he has represented change and hope in very real terms. A lot has been said in the mainstream media about how the online battle was not going to win the election, wiping their brows with a collective sigh of relief as they did so. But they have missed the point. What the online battle has allowed for is for people to actively discuss the election amongst their peers, to strutinise and find comedy in an area that is usually so dry and passionless and inscrutable. It has allowed politics to become cool again to a generation that grew up thinking it was all pointless, and to let people think that their voice can be heard, that their views are just as valid and important as those of the right or left wing press. It has provided an avenue for both hope and fear to be expressed, and to grow.

But while this sense of renewed optimism seems so palpable today, as I watch my friends talk on twitter about the vote, as I read passionate blogs about the election, and as the Facebook vote counter has climbed and climbed, I wonder if this sense of hope and optimism is all just a prelude to a million dashed hopes and squandered dreams, as tomorrow we awake (well, not me, I'll be staying up all night to watch it but you know what I mean) to find that the Tories are back in charge. I hope not. What I really want is a hung parliament, with Labour strong enough to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Anything but Cameron, who will destroy so many of the services that the British people have come to rely on over these past 13 years. And there again, is the fear that means that while this election is the most important of my lifetime, it will never represent that Obama moment. I am beginning to wonder if we as a nation are capable of it.

But enough doom and gloom (there'll probably be plenty of that to go around tomorrow) because if nothing else this election has provided moments of high drama, comedy and, yes hope.  Here, in no particular order, are my top 5 moments of the 2010 election:

1. Watching the polls for Clegg go through the roof after the first debate, and how the pundits were utterly unprepared for it.
2. When Ellen pointed out in the same debate that Cameron was the spit of Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation.
3. The moment today when someone (fellow sci-fi geek) on Facebook pointed out that in fact he could be Lore, the evil twin of Data, which leaves the possibility still of Cameron ending up destroyed on a desert planet, or brainwiped and joining the good guys.
4. When Twitter pounced on the anti-Clegg rhetoric in the press and created the #nickcleggsfault hashtag.
5. The BNP running the most error prone and shambolic campaign possible, blowing (hopefully) any ground they made in the European elections.

But of course there are low points:

1. Bigotgate, because apparently calling a bigot a bigot is tantamount to treason, or possibly just a good excuse to move off the colossal economy story from the day before.
2. The Sky Debate, and Adam Boulton's stupid puffy Murdoch-financed face.
3. George Osbourne. Because I've seen enough horror films to know what the end of that story is.
4. The dismissal of the Lib Dems in the final week by every bit of TV coverage.
5. The weird spittle thing that Cameron seems to get on his chin when he's excited. Freaks. Me. Out.

And that's about it.  I shall now spend the next twelve hours or so glued to my television, hoping against hope for a defeat for the forces of darkness.

Too much hope can kill you. Politically speaking.

'Imagine this is Cameron's head. I'm jabbing him in the eye right now.'

This election seems on the outside to have been the most interesting, explosive and open of my lifetime. It has energised the left and left traditional Lib Dem supporters on cloud nine. But why do I feel that come May 7th the party will be over and all that talk of change will end at the exact same time as Cameron moves into number 10?

Change is in the air. Having seen America go through an era defining with Barack Obama, a lot of people I know were paying attention to the upcoming election with a more engaged mind than I remember at any election before. But nothing could prepare me for what happened after the first TV debate. Even as a Lib Dem supporter I knew very little about Nick Clegg going into it, presuming him to be the party's misguided attempt to go down the Cameron route, rather than trust in the experience and wisdom that the likes of Ashdown and Kennedy had brought, and that Vince Cable could easily bring.

But then came the second question of the first debate, and Nick Clegg stood up and sounded genuinely engaged and, crucially, like a leader on the expenses scandal. In the week and a half that has followed the first debate, the Lib Dems have become a focal point for a lot of the disillusioned left who saw them as a potential break from the mess that is (post New) Labour. And online, the online liberal community has found a unifying voice, on issues such as rationalism, science funding, nuclear proliferation and more. Nick Clegg has genuinely energised people in the same way that it looked like people were energised by Blair back in 1997 (and I speak here as an outsider to that whole movement, who couldn't get over the fact that Tony Blair looked like the antichrist).

And now we liberal left voters know that we're getting to 'them' because here comes the right wing press, trying every desperate tactic they can to bring down this new emergent force that potentially could have the clout to forever change the establishment. They sling mud as fast as they can, in the hope that they can change the narritive. But they don't see that all they are doing is energising the base hard right wing of the Conservative party to get out and vote, which they were going to do anyway. For the moment the momentum has been stolen from Cameron, and to a lot of undecided voters he no longer looks like the voice of change, but the voice of the same party that they hated all these years.

Or at least that was what I thought, but when you look at the polls the truth is that Cameron is still ahead, and in the marginal seats which will decide this election the vast majority are simply a two horse race that the Lib Dems will have no influence over. Fast forward to May 6th and the simple truth is that the Lib Dems can hope to strengthen their position, but no more than that. The Conservatives are going to win. And so the best we can hope for is a hung parliament.

But what will that look like? Well, for the most part it will look much the same as a Conservative government. Clegg can't support Brown if he comes in last, and the pipedream of Clegg himself doing well enough on the day to force Labour to accept him as leader is not reflected by the electoral math. No matter how bad Labour do in terms of vote share, they will still have more MP's than the Lib Dems.

And so the Lib Dems will have to go into a coalition with the Conservatives. If they don't, they will be hated for propping up Brown, of for failing to come to an agreement and causing another election, and all of the ground they have made nationally will be lost. The Conservatives will know this and will not be so happy to give away power to the Lib Dems. So the Lib Dems will be forced to choose which of their priorities to hold to. My guess will be that it will be electoral reform, which the Tories will hate as they have the most to lose. But then I wouldn't be surprised to see that put on the backburner. Perhaps the Lib Dems will be able to temper the more insane of the Conservative tendencies, but it will still be Dave running the show.

Now I am not trying to put a huge dampener on all that has gone on so far. It's been marvellous seeing people taking such a pronounced interest, and the way that the internet has really come into its own. We now have more power to decide for ourselves what is important, and the means to put those questions to our representitives. And there will be real change as a result of this election. Electoral reform is looking more and more like a certainty now, and the changes that will come will change our system forever. But anyone looking in the short term for that Obama moment when we rise up as one and embrace Liberalism, it's just not going to happen, and we could all do well to make sure our hopes don't outstrip political reality.

On the other hand, if I am wrong about this and I sit watching BBC news on May 6th getting drunker, watching the swingometer go more and more yellow, and the faces of the Tory hopefuls becoming ashen, I will be glad to be wrong, and will eat my hat accordingly. And not just a beanie, but the silly Russian style one with the earflaps.